In Q2 2022 earnings report and call, NIO expects to deliver 31,000 to 33,000 vehicles in the third quarter of 2022, and NIO is now ready for the rapid growth in production and deliveries in the fourth quarter.
Li Bin said that the delivery of ET5 is expected to exceed 10,000 in December, and it will break records month by month in the fourth quarter, rising month by month, and reaching its peak in December.
Judging from the third-quarter delivery guidance and fourth-quarter delivery expectations, NIO has gradually stepped out of the previous trough of sales growth caused by the switch between new and old models. Due to the expected sales growth, NIO has been favored by many institutions.
Tianfeng Securities believes that ET5 may lead NIO to a higher level. Although the cost problem is significant, the good direction is that under NIO’s performance guidance and delivery guidance, the target guidance for the third and fourth quarters is better and surpasses peers. Thanks to the active preparations for the commissioning of the new plant in the third quarter, two plants will be able to produce new cars at the same time in the fourth quarter. All existing products will be switched to the new NT2 platform, and the production capacity of its ace product ET5 will be released.
CITIC Securities expects NIO to turn losses into profits in 2024, with a GAAP net profit of 1.3 billion yuan. The company is expected to receive a revaluation. At the same time, it is believed that with the opening of the second-generation model cycle, it has entered a new stage of “product-force driving sales”. The inflection point of the scale effect has arrived, and the increase in gross profit and the dilution of expenses has accelerated.
Soochow Securities released a research report saying that the medium and large SUV ES7 based on the NT2 platform started delivery in August. At the same time, the previous price increase orders began to be delivered in Q3. It is expected that the Q3 gross profit margin will be repaired to a certain extent. Throughout the year, ET5 will be delivered at the end of September, and ET5 is expected to contribute to a larger increase in sales.
Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu said in a research report that there are two factors that will drive NIO’s outstanding performance and make it “a leader” among the upstarts in electric vehicles: First, The ET5 mid-size sedan could become the best-selling premium model in a “short period of time” as initial customer acceptance has been very good and production can take advantage of NIO’s new factory; Second, NIO’s sales are still relatively stable. This represents thoughtful pricing and an emphasis on brand and service. He reiterated that NIO is his top pick in China’s electric vehicle space, with a buy rating and a $39 price target.