After the end of September, ET5 will be officially delivered, alleviating the current pressure on NIO. ET5 is expected to become the blockbuster to boost NIO’s monthly delivery to 20,000-level soon.
NIO delivered a total of 71,500 vehicles from January to August 2022. The average monthly delivery in the past three months is about 11,000 vehicles.
At the Q2 2022 earnings conference call, NIO provided the Q3 projection of delivering 31,000 to 33,000 vehicles in the third quarter of 2022. That is, for Q3, the average monthly delivery is expect to be about 11,000 vehicles and include the contributions from ET7 and ES7. but not from ET5.
The monthly delivery has been around the 10,000-level with gradual increase. The introduction of ET7 and ES7 has not significantly boost the delivery due to the higher starting prices of the two models at more than 440,000 yuan each.
The ET5 is NIO’s current model with the lowest starting price. If the battery rental service is used, the starting price of the car is 258,000 yuan, making it the first model with a minimum starting price of less than 300,000 yuan.
At present, in a price range of 200,000-300,000 yuan, the competitors’ models include Tesla Model 3, XPeng P7 and other local brands. Due to the price range, ET5 has many competitors. But, the performance data and parameters of the ET5 are strong, and the car has the advantage in battery replacement.
At the conference call, NIO provided the guidance of rapid Q4 growth and ET5 delivery over 10,000 in December. In other words, in Q4, NIO is expected to at least maintain the Q3’s average monthly delivery of 11,000 for other models and reach the 20,000-level for the total monthly delivery in December with ET5’s great contribution of over 10,000, thus doubling the current monthly delivery.
NIO is in urgent need of a big-selling blockbuster model to verify the capabilities it has accumulated over the past few years in terms of brand, technology, channels, battery swaps, and services. ET5 is expected to become such a model carrying the high hope for NIO.