|A “U-shaped rebound” is not a “V-shaped straight-line rebound”, and it will take some time to destock overseas|
It is learned on December 20 from media outlet Caixin, “The overall foreign trade situation next year will walk out of a ‘U-shaped rebound’ curve.” On December 20, Zhang Kuo, President of Ali International Station, Alibaba’s cross-border B2B platform, made a judgment on foreign trade next year, saying that the recovery of overseas markets is a predictable and high-probability event.
“‘U-shaped rebound’ is not a ‘V-shaped straight-line rebound’, because it will take some time for overseas stocks to be destocked.” Zhang Kuo said that economists generally estimate that overseas inventories will return to normal levels in June and July next year, and overseas buyers will resume purchases of Chinese consumer goods starting in March.
At the beginning of the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, due to effective epidemic control measures, China became the only country in the world with stable supply. China’s foreign trade exports showed double-digit growth, and the growth rate once exceeded 30%. On the other hand, in response to the instability of the supply chain caused by the tight shipping capacity, overseas buyers made panic purchases, which raised the inventory level. Since the beginning of this year, the Russian-Ukraine war and the outbreak of the energy crisis have restricted overseas consumption levels, further pushing up overseas inventory levels, and China’s export growth has gradually slowed down, with single-digit growth starting in August and negative growth in October.